There’s been a nagging question for all those wanting to truly understand the impact that Scientology has. If you ask David Miscavige, he will tell you that the “church” has millions of members and is growing stronger by the day. But if you’re reading this blog, you know that’s far from the truth.

So, how many members does the Church of Scientology actually have? There’s no easy way to find the answer, but you can narrow it down. Many in the ex-Scientology internet space have given a perhaps overly optimistic estimate of 40,000 members. But in likelihood, it’s far lower than that, even lower than the 30,000 others have suggested. To find the answer, you’d have to look at professional religious identification surveys, few of which actually include Scientology. Their impact just isn’t significant enough to be included by heavy hitters like the Pew Research Center, for example.

However, the American Religious Identification Survey can at least give us accurate numbers in the USA. Based out of Trinity College, they claim to have a plus or minus 5% error rate. Their last survey to include Scientologists nation-wide was back in 2008, where they estimated the US numbers to be at 25,000. That same survey found there to be 55,000 Scientologists back in 2001. In just seven years, the number of Scientologists in the USA dropped by over 50%. With the advent of the internet, the Going Clear documentary, and increasingly negative publicity about Scientology, it would be safe to say the numbers have likely decreased since then, and likely at a similar or even accelerated rate. In the USA, at least, if the numbers of decline remained steady, we’re realistically looking at 10,000 or less US members of the church.

Of course, the 30,000 estimate takes the whole world into account. The United Kingdom has more recent data. In 2021, their census estimated around 1,800 Scientologists in their midst. That’s a 25% drop in UK Scientologists from their survey just a decade prior. 

In Canada, Macleans estimates that there are 2,500 Scientologists in that nation. The numbers in the UK and Canada are important to analyze because they have the most recent reliable data on numbers of parishioners. But with those nations hosting the most amount of Scientologists in the world behind the US, you can see that the US holds the lions’ share of Scientologists. If Canada’s number is at 2,500, with a paltry 4,300 a decade prior, it would be safe to say the US easily has 70-75% of the world’s Scientologists. If nation number one and two pale in comparison to the US, it’s easy to dispel that Scientology is a rapidly growing religion abroad, particularly outside of the developed world.

All the numbers we have are scattershot, often from varying years, but the numbers in India for example illustrate the fact that unlike other religions (think Christianity), Scientology is not growing in the developing world, or at least not in a significant enough way where factoring in their members would make a difference to get an accurate world-wide count. Open the Magazine, a trusted publication in India, estimates that 6,000 to 7,000 people in India took Scientology courses. The numbers who actually joined, however, would likely be less than 15% of that, so it doesn’t have this other life line of growth in nations less talked about. 

So, it looks like, give or take, if you analyze the numbers of Scientologists in the UK, USA, and Canada, you are probably looking at  85% of Scientologists world-wide. That’s a pretty decent idea from those three countries alone.

So, if in 2008 the US had 25,000 members, with a consistent drop of 50% every ten years, we’re looking, very likely,  at less than 10,000 current US Scientologists. Add the most recent data with the UK at 1,800, with Canada likely having 1,000-1,500 current members (since there most recent data was 2011, we’re assuming Canada has a similar drop off rate as the US). 

So, even for the MOST optimistic, it’s almost definitive that there are actually less than 25,000 Scientologists world-wide. The few numbers we do have are old and they all show one trend- decline in Scientology is rapid, with a drop of 30-50% being the norm in a span of just 10 years.

We use these old figures because that’s what we have to work with, but the nuggets can be found in the drop off rate, and thus can give us an almost accurate number, or at least getting within 5,000 people give or take. This is all to say that the estimates, even from their enemies, of Scientology’s numbers are overly optimistic. Don’t be surprised to see under 5,000 Scientologists world wide by 2030.

In the meantime, we’ll keep fighting, as all these efforts to create awareness about the evils of the church seem to be working. People are leaving at a rapid clip, thanks to all those speaking out on a daily basis. People are listening, and a quick crunching of the numbers show that the message is working.

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